When the Great Recession hit in 2008 and Americans stopped buying cars, it soon became clear that the auto companies might well go out of business. The millions of jobs that would’ve been lost and the terrible blow to the American economy were considered intolerable, so the government bailed the industry out to the tune of almost $80 billion.
It was hugely controversial at the time; you might remember Mitt Romney’s famous “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” op-ed, which he never quite lived down. But what few Americans probably know is that there was a bailout almost as big during Donald Trump’s first term. The difference was that Trump’s bailout was entirely predictable and entirely avoidable. And now he’s about to do it all over again.
In this case, the ones being bailed out are farmers.
Just as he did in his first term, Trump seems to be implementing the following brilliant economic strategy. First, impose tariffs on foreign goods, knowing that other countries (especially China) will retaliate by no longer importing American agricultural products. Next, take the revenue raised by tariffs — which are essentially a sales tax imposed at ports of entry — and hand the money to the farmers who were harmed by his trade war.
What that means is that the farmers will be insulated at least somewhat from the damage Trump’s foolish trade war did to them; in other words, they’ll get a bailout. The rest of us will pay for it. And the economy will get no benefit at all.
random totally unrelated fun fact: JD Vance’s venture capital firm is an investor in AcreTrader
I think the article is correct that a bailout is coming, but I don’t think it will be as big as they’re saying. large in absolute terms, yes, but not necessarily that large relative to the size of the problem they’re claiming to address.
more likely, they’ll do just enough of a bailout that state-run media outlets like Fox News can push a “Trump is helping soybean farmers who’ve been attacked by the Chinese” talking point. and meanwhile a bunch of farms will go bankrupt and be forced to sell to oligarchs and private equity ghouls.
And those farmers are increasingly large corporations that have bought out or priced out small farmers.
Gotta love those “negative goodwill” investors.