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Cake day: August 20th, 2023

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  • On July 23, 2016, ahead of the 2016 Democratic National Convention, the 2016 DNC Rules Committee voted overwhelmingly (158–6) to adopt a superdelegate reform package. The new rules were the result of a compromise between the Hillary Clinton and the Bernie Sanders presidential campaigns

    Ultimately, the DNC decided to prevent superdelegates from voting on the first ballot, instead of reducing their numbers

    People keep seeming to forget about the super delegate reform Bernie fought for. They are still there now, 15% of all the delegates (a lot of the super delegates being democratic elected officials like members of congress since that automatically gives the status). But they can’t vote in the first ballot any longer. They could only vote in a contested election in subsequent ballots, after all the other pledged delegates are unbound as well.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdelegate

    Even before those reforms, they never really made a difference in any convention, except possibly 1984 when they helped push Mondale from a plurality to a majority by voting for him on the first ballot.

    I’m not personally in favor of them at all, but it’s not nearly as bad as it’s made out to be sometimes. If we go to an open convention though, unless there’s a majority choice on the first ballot, they may play a role on subsequent ballots.



  • Yes, that’s true. The poll averages themselves haven’t moved much either though. And the reliance on the fundamentals forecast has me nervous, but they definitely do it for a reason. When they developed the models and looked at poll history the pattern they found was the fundamentals had a big influence on what the polls would look like closer to the election and the eventual result. Polls closer to the election are more predictive than the fundamentals. Polls farther away from the election less so. There’s at least some reason to think things have changed enough maybe the fundamentals aren’t as fundamental for this race, but I guess we won’t know until afterward.


  • Exactly, I think because races have been so close lately, and the probabilities are ending up close to 50% often, people sometimes unintentionally conflate them with poll numbers. 53% to 46% would be a massive poll lead. For probabilities though in this situation it’s the same as saying they have even odds of winning. Look at those massive 95% confidence intervals, the race is in a statistical dead heat. It’s kind of remarkable how steady it has been despite all the wild events that have happened.








  • That the eye can only perceive 24 fps is a myth. Plus vision perception is very complicated with many different processes, and your eyes and brain don’t strictly perceive things in frames per second. 24 fps is a relatively arbitrary number picked by the early movie industry, to make sure it would stay a good amount above 16 fps (below this you lose the persistence of motion illusion) without wasting too much more film, and is just a nice easily divisible number. The difference between higher frame rates is quite obvious. Just go grab any older pc game to make sure you can get a high frame rate, then cap it to not go higher to 24 after that, and the difference is night and day. Tons of people complaining about how much they hated the look of Hobbit movie with its 48 fps film can attest to this as well. You certainly do start to get some diminishing returns the higher fps you get though. Movies can be shot to deliberately avoid quick camera movements and other things that wouldn’t do well at 24 fps, but video games don’t always have that luxury. For an rpg or something sure 30 fps is probably fine. But fighting, action, racing, anything with a lot of movement or especially quick movements of the camera starts to feel pretty bad at 30 compared to 60.




  • This is bizarre, I looked and Rochester Minnesota has multiple high speed providers, including two that offer fiber.

    And the isp you have is a wireless isp that doesn’t even list Rochester as within its coverage area, they’re intended to serve more rural areas west of the city. On their map it gets close to but not quite in Rochester, but maybe they’re still able to access it (slowly) since it’s a wireless provider.

    I’m guessing this is a whoever owns your Airbnb problem rather than a Rochester Minnesota problem. I don’t understand why they would be paying for this rather than use any of the readily available high speed options there.