Agreed. I edited a bit about Hybrids / Electric motors in there while you were typing that response up.

Hybrid Engines really change the game, as do full electrics. I still am convinced that a gearbox is superior by the way (ie: Toyota Prius or Ford Escape designs, as well as Porsche Tycan for a full EV). But electric engines have many more “tricks” available that remove the need of a manual clutch, wet clutch, or other needs of older ICE designs.

ICE still is overall cheaper. But if Hybrid becomes the new standard, then manuals are fully dead. These eCVT / planetary gear system magic is really incredible… and no need for a clutch (or wet-clutch) either.

I personally feel like overpowered EVs will be seen as wasteful, especially because we’ve reached the limitation on how cheap Li-ion can get. Cheaper batteries are possible with future chemistries (Sodium-ion, Silicon+Li-ion , etc. etc.) but not dramatically so. I don’t think it will be possible to scale up mass production of the complex chemical processes needed to convert acid from mountains into Lithium. And recycling of Lithium remains fraught with problems.

Of course, I could be wrong and maybe these problems will be solved soon. But for the near future, assuming the environmental costs of Li-ion remain roughly the same as now, there’s a bigger need to shrink down battery/motors and therefore use gears to handle a wider range of driving speeds.

The cheapest material moving forward will remain steel. Therefore any “steel-based” solution (like a gearbox) will remain the king of overall efficiency and effectiveness of car designs. Copper, Lithium, Cobalt, Silicon, Sodium… many other metals can build up more complex behaviors (EVs), but ugggh. They’re just not as cheap or effective as what steel can do.